45% chance. Resolves YES if I see definitive proof that one of you here on Manifold is a chess grandmaster. Will stay open until end of 2025 or until a grandmaster joins Manifold, whichever comes first. It cannot be the friend or relative of a Manifold user, and if you are (or if someone you suspect is) an anonymous user, I'll need something that definitively proves that the holder of the account is a grandmaster. I will not bet in this market.