Will a new app using crypto reach the top of any category of the Apple App Store by 2028?
Basic
0
2028
50%
chance

It is expected that under Trump, the SEC will adopt a more crypto-friendly approach. This market essentially asks the question: is it primarily due to regulation that crypto apps are not more mainstream?

Resolves YES if by 2028, any app which was not publicly available im the App Store on market creation reaches the top of any category.

For example, this (almost?) happened for Polymarket recently https://www.covers.com/politics/election-betting-takes-kalshi-polymaret-to-top-of-app-store-nov-6-2024. That being said, it launched before this market was created, so if it reached #1 it would not count.

Using crypto can include using crypto in the backend, such as letting users hold or trade coins. Crypto refers only to public legers, not private or CBDC.

I can foresee this potentially having controversy if it only occurs in specific regions or something like that. Note that as long as there's a single "Reliable Source" indicating that this occurred, I'll resolve YES.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules