In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts a US-government led project to build AGI in 2027/2028:
Somewhere around 26/27 or so, the mood in Washington will become somber. People will start to viscerally feel what is happening; they will be scared. From the halls of the Pentagon to the backroom Congressional briefings will ring the obvious question, the question on everybody’s minds: do we need an AGI Manhattan Project?
...
by late 26/27/28 it will be underway.
This market resolves YES if all of the following are true about a US government project:
"The core AGI research team (a few hundred researchers) will move to a secure location". For this market, we will use "at least 200 researchers" in place of "a few hundred researchers".
The project is "primarily in the domain of national security".
A "trillion-dollar [AI] cluster will be built". For this resolution criterion, there will need to be an outlay of a trillion dollars for compute in the project before market close.
This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
Other markets about Leopold's predictions: