How much of the popular vote will Kamala Harris win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
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Plus
137
Ṁ100k
Dec 31
99%
More than 46.09% of the vote (what Donald Trump got in the 2016 election)
99%
More than 46.85% of the vote (what Donald Trump got in the 2020 election)
99%
More than 47.20% of the vote (what Mitt Romney got in the 2012 election)
99%
More than 47.86% of the vote (what George W. Bush got in the 2000 election)
99%
More than 48.02% of the vote (What Gerald Ford got in the 1976 election)
99%
More than 48.18% of the vote (what Hillary Clinton got in the 2016 election)
34%
More than 48.27% of the vote (what John Kerry got in the 2004 election)
1%
More than 48.38% of the vote (what Al Gore got in the 2000 election)
1%
More than 49.24% of the vote (what Bill Clinton got in the 1996 election)
1%
More than 49.55% of the vote (what Richard Nixon got in the 1960 election)
1%
More than 49.72% of the vote (what John F. Kennedy got in the 1960 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 37.45% of the vote (what George H. W. Bush got in the 1992 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 38.47% of the vote (what Barry Goldwater got in the 1964 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 40.56% of the vote (what Walter Mondale got in the 1984 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 40.71% of the vote (what Bob Dole got in the 1996 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 41.01% of the vote (what Jimmy Carter got in the 1980 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 41.97% of the vote (what Adlai Stevenson II got in the 1956 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 42.72% of the vote (what Hubert Humphrey got in the 1968 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 43.01% of the vote (what Bill Clinton got in the 1992 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 43.42% of the vote (what Richard Nixon got in the 1968 election)

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about Harris's bid to other modern presidential election results.

A combination of the Federal Election Commission's numbers and Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market. Dave Leip's numbers will be used for the 2024 election.

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Joe Biden answer should not be taken as 51.31% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total he actually got according to the FEC (81,283,501/158,429,631=~51.305744%) or according to Dave Leip's numbers for elections that predate the FEC reports.

I've made Dave Leip's numbers the resolution criteria this time, so you won't have to wait for the FEC report. If Dave Leip's website explodes I'll use whatever looks like consensus to me among other election results sources, in the interest of speedy resolution. If there's a big disagreement between reputable sources for specific thresholds, then I'll wait for the FEC report.

Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.

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Would it be possible to clarify this: "If there's a big disagreement between reputable sources for specific thresholds, then I'll wait for the FEC report." It's very possible that the FEC report will show Harris with greater than 48.27%, but that Leip will show Harris with less. I believe the discrepancy is caused because Leip incorporates some write-in votes included in some county/local reports, but not tabulated by state election officials. Leip reported nearly 200,000 more votes for "other" candidates in 2020 than were included in the final FEC report. There is considerable variability among states about what constitutes a valid write-in vote, which are required to be reported/tabulated, etc. I cannot find an explanation on Leip's site for these discrepancies or exactly which local sources he reviews.

@Tripping Following up on this question because this issue still appears likely to occur. Would be great to have an answer. Thanks.

@bitters I'll use Leip, the FEC report is only referred to in the circumstance where Leip disappears and there's disagreement about the results in other sources

new market! how will the green party do this time?

Cornel West version of the question. Might be relevant to Harris' numbers, since he probably will pull his votes from the left.

bought Ṁ150 YES

"Barack" is spelled with one r

Fixed!

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