Will China have fewer than 8.5 million live births in 2024?
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This question will resolve based on figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
For reference, they reported 9.02M births in 2023.
https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html
This number excludes "residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and foreigners living in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities."
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