He announced today he is no longer seeking the Democratic Party nomination and will run as an independent instead.

The people buying NO on this market will probably get better odds on the other market just FYI. https://manifold.markets/mistersplice/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-the-de

Will Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. win the Democratic Primary and be a serious contender for President of the United States?

4% chance. https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4020920-why-i-believe-rfk-jr-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nominee/ [link preview]

As of September 2021, 86% of Democrats had gotten at least one COVID vaccine (presumably, that number is slightly higher now.) Given RFK Jr.'s antivax conspiracy theories, I really don't think he can make it through a competitive Democratic primary. The attack ads would be devastating to his campaign.

@evergreenemily agreed, not sure what some of these yes bettors know that we don't but it seems obvious that RFK is far too outside of the mainstream for the institutionalist DNC to ever anoint him.

@evergreenemily This has been my line of thought this whole time. Who is an antivax Democrat supposed to appeal to?

@evergreenemily well how did he get to 20% of the democrat vote?

@NcyRocks My guess is that many of his supporters don't actually know about his antivax views, and are mostly saying they'll vote for him because he's not Biden and his last name is Kennedy. It's part of why I think attack ads will sink his campaign - plenty of previously uninformed primary voters are going to have an "oh shit, he said WHAT?" moment.

He's also polling at around 15%, and 14% of Democrats didn't have the vaccine in 2021, so...could be some overlap there.

@Daniel_MC A combination of ~10-15% of Democrats probably being at least somewhat anti-vax themselves, plus some Democrats who don't (yet) know about his views on the issue, plus the anyone-but-Biden effect.

@Daniel_MC

Well, how did he get to 20% of the democrat vote?

May I ask for the source, please? Do you mean a poll? I saw news headlines that reported 14-19% support for RFK jr. in polls, but also the top Google result which read,

Poll: 49% of voters favor Robert F Kennedy Jr. as Democratic nominee over Biden | Morning in America

(That may have been a single outlier. All I am asking is: Did you mean an poll? Had there been an election? Or what did you mean?)

@XComhghall that's only because only 49% of voters have actually heard of him

@mistersplice I wonder how many people hear the question "do you know who Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is?" and think "sure, RFK's son, obviously" vs "oh yeah that antivax guy".

@XComhghall I imagine the majority of Republicans prefer him to Biden.

@NcyRocks it's surprising that "antivax" is still a thing after all the info that has come out

@XComhghall

This was my source

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/robert-f-kennedy-jr-whats-behind-the-anti-vaccine-activists-surprising-polling-strength-200240263.html

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: What’s behind the anti-vaccine activist’s surprising polling strength?

Despite his many fringe beliefs, up to 20 percent of Democratic voters say they’d consider supporting the political dynasty’s most controversial member over President Biden in the Democratic primary.

@NcyRocks yeah if he did get the nomination I think we would do very well against Trump or DeSantis. Better than Biden for sure. Independents like him too.

@Daniel_MC I could see him struggling with turnout among young and progressive voters. I can't speak for other progressive Democrats, but I'd probably vote Green instead if he was the nominee.

@Daniel_MC

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23825119/cnn-poll-2024-democratic-primary.pdf

What is the main reason you would consider supporting Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.?

Kennedy name/Family connections - 20%

Do not know enough/Want to learn more - 17%

Support his views/policies - 12%

Would consider any candidate/Open-minded - 10%

[it goes on from there]

He's just riding on his family name and being one of three candidates. Only 12% of potential supporters actually like his policies. His family name isn't going to carry him against an incumbent president. And if it even looks like he's going to do decently against Biden, mainstream Democrats can just put our (entirely truthful and accurate!) attack ads about his beliefs and that will knock out any support.

@Gabrielle Even then, I wonder how many of that 12% could actually describe his policies. The only concrete issue named there is the climate.

(Also, what has it come to that some people mention his age... he'll be 71 on Inauguration Day!)

@NcyRocks Maybe people assume that he's young because he has "Jr." in the name?

Williamson has the age problem too, she'll be 72 on Inauguration Day. It's one thing if you're trading experience and policies for someone who's young, but everyone in this primary should be retired by now; it's hardly a group of youngsters challenging him.

@Gabrielle They mention his age because he's younger than Biden or Trump (or Williamson), and not old enough to be senile. It's just funny he's the youngest of the bunch. To be fair, only 3% named that as a factor.