if you like IMDb’s Top 250:

When movies come out, they typically move up and down IMDb’s Top 250. How long does a movie need to be in the Top 10 for it to qualify? Any time at all?

@mattyb Yeah, this is essential. Oppenheimer was 9.1 at the start iirc.

New movies are usually 0.5-1.5 above what their rating will be once everything settles.

(Endgame was 9.3 for a while.)

@JonathanMannhart @Tsunombie

@mattyb Ah, good point. The intention of the market is that it should be more or less stable.

How about: Movies won't be considered "included" on the top-10 list until they are at least one month after their general box office release. Would that do it? Longer, shorter period of time?

Alternately, could say a movie needs to stay on the top-10 list for [a minimum period of time] before it can be considered "included".

But I think I like the first condition better, because it doesn't require us to know when a movie first appeared on the list.

@Tsunombie yes, that’s clear but it changes the market quite a bit.

Still thinking if there's a better way to formulate it. But yeah, I'm more interested in long-term changes to What's Considered Great, and less interested in things that make a short-term good impression but don't hold their place over time.

@JonathanMannhart Very helpful. I'm starting to fully realize the problem. Here are some more examples, starting with yours:

Avengers: Endgame: was in top-10 for days 2-13 after release

Spider-Man: No Way Home: was in top-10 for days 1-10 after release

Dune Part Two: was in top-10 for days 4-9 after release

Inception: was in top-10 for more than two months after release

Toy Story 3: was in top-10 for about 1.5 months after release

But they all fell away. The current top-10 are all old movies.

@Tsunombie I think if the market is intended to capture long-term changes, it would probably need quite a bit of a timing delay for a movie to count.

Inception stabilised at number 14, so that's already pretty close. That implies that 2-3 months is probably a good timeframe?

Agree. Okay, here's what I propose:

Change title from:

"When will IMDb's top 10 films include a different movie (starting 4/2024)?"

to

"When will IMDb's top 10 films stably include a different movie (starting 4/2024)?"

Add to description:

Edit:

The intention of the market is to predict long-term changes to the top-10 list.

It is common for new releases to appear on the top-10 list in a transient way. A new release will only be considered "stably included" on the top-10 list if it is three months past its theatrical release date. This might lead to a delayed resolution for certain time brackets listed on the market; for instance, if a new release appears on the top-10 list on December 31, 2024, then the "2024" time bracket will resolve three months after the film's release, or when the film has dropped out of the top-10, whichever comes first.

By contrast, if an older film (more than 3 months past its release date) breaks into the top-10 list, then the relevant time brackets can resolve immediately to YES.

@Tsunombie you may want to N/A this market and start again. When I bet here, the market had very different rules and description.