Will Tumbles punch someone before Joe Biden dies?
42%
chance

The punch only counts if at least one of the following is true:
1. The punch was thrown with maximum Tumbles force and connects with someone's head or torso
2. The punch was thrown with true violent intent to harm someone
3. The punch immediately instigates a real physical fight
4. The punch gets Tumbles arrested
5. The punch is against someone well known and gets significant attention on social media

I don't believe I've ever done anything in my life before that would satisfy this criteria. It's possible I punched someone with true violent intent when I was a little kid, hard to say. In any case, it must occur after the creation of this market to count.

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ok I was gonna buy this down to 10% but apparently tumbles is holding a lot of YES, has lots of limit orders, and is demonstrably insane...? ๐Ÿ˜†

@Bayesian I mean so far I've only spent 130, and I aint belting someone for 130 mana

@Tumbles I don't want to enable your violence by betting NO ๐Ÿ˜ญ

@Bayesian Does consensual donkey punching resolve YES?

@iceman he could instigate a real physical fight with a donkey, nothing about the description forces that requirement to be about a fight with a human

@Bayesian See my comment below why that could never occur. Maybe one of those smart assed ponies at the fair.

@Bayesian They do have to be a person, and I'm afraid I don't consider donkeys people. It's possible I could resolve this by punching an AGI somehow but even in the case where I get the chance I feel like those guys will be made of metal and thus very not fun to punch as hard as I can

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@Tumbles wait important question, are you strong LOL? a strong person punching someone else with all their strength is kinda intense, but a weakling like me could probably ask a big dude "hey can i punch you for a challenge" and it would do them nothing lol

@Bayesian Cope: I've got that anime sleeper build... I've surprised people in arm wrestling contests. I vibrate my body 12 hours a day to build strength without ever working out.

Not cope: I'm pretty scrawny

I'm pretty sure a punch from a scrawny person hurts a lot if they put their back into it!

@Tumbles I'm pretty sure it doesn't, if you are big! on the torso that is. torso seems to have pretty good energy absorption on tough & big people. head not as much ofc

@Bayesian He's sandbagging you. I've seen his stream. He could pack a wallop. Also, surprisingly attractive! No lies

A statement from darkness

During the end of January and early February, @Tumbles was relentlessly trolled by Manifold Politics. darkness does not allow for the mistreatment of Canadian citizens.

One of our secret agents Dabbie Trekko (DT - Dark Tumbles, get it?) infiltrated the ChatGPT guessing game and set off our mission.

OUR MISSION: Restore honoUr to @Tumbles and return him to his true meme roots. Manifold Politics engaged in psychological warfare that had our Canadian stallion brainwashed into focusing on betting on 'Murican politics. darkness is like the Mossad of Canada. We have a limited budget and can only operate on destiny.gg, manifold.markets, and https://www.thedonkeysanctuary.ca/

Be warned if you mess with Canadians on any of those sites, you will face the wrath of darkness.

Just when you thought the meme economy was entering a recession, this market proves you wrong. Load up on shares of all available markets in the TFC.

One more thing... He's back, baby.

Ya scared, @Pykess ?

@iceman look man I already know I'm screwed, my bio has acknowledged that for some time now. at this point I'm just hoping to enjoy my last few days of life before I'm demoted back to bronze with a balance of -M10k

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If this market gets low enough, I'm gonna start buying a bunch of YES. And if I buy enough YES, I'm not sure what I might be capable of...

I can promise that this will only resolve YES if the description is CLEARLY satisfied. I will not resolve it YES if it's borderline whether or not I had true violent intent, or if it's borderline whether or not it got significant attention on social media, etc. It's a slam dunk YES resolution, or it's a NO resolution.

bought แน€250 NO from 58% to 40%
opened a แน€69 YES at 45% order

@Tumbles Will you be at Manifest 2?

@CertaintyOfVictory I'm not currently planning to, but the idea was just recently planted in my mind to make it happen. I'd have to fly down from Western Canada.

If anyone would actively want to house me during the visit or anything like that it would be good to know.

@Tumbles Okay, so we can find you someone to punch there.

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