By 2030, will a videogame that uses generative AI to create content make Steam's top ten games by user count?
Standard
13
Ṁ408
2030
80%
chance

The game must use generative AI in what I consider to be a substantial way. I will not try to spell out every possibility, but here are some examples:

  • AI generated plot, where the AI acts as a "dungeon master", giving each user a unique story that responds to their choices

  • AI generated characters with unique dialogue. If I'm able to step into an in-game bar and have a conversation with a character that is unique to my game, I will consider this substantial

What I will not consider substantial:

  • Procedurally generated creatures that largely behave in set ways (otherwise No Man's Sky would qualify)

  • AI generated art that is not interactive. I don't really care if a picture on the wall is made with AI (so if wallpaper engine integrates AI images, this will not count)

The AI for this market needs to be built into the game, giving a unique experience to each player. This market does not account for whether AI is used in making the game. As I said before, I can't cover every scenario, so if you have questions be sure to drop them in the comments.

This market resolves Yes if a game meeting these criteria is ranked among the top ten games on steam by player count by resolution.

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