Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
Basic
15
Ṁ5492030
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I'll define major as largest 10 metro areas. For self-driving I'll use SAE level 3.
https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/gallery/cm/content/news/sae-blog/j3016graphic_2021.png
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?
65% chance
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?
70% chance
Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
51% chance
Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?
56% chance
Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
27% chance
Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?
48% chance
Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?
76% chance
Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037
41% chance