As of late, there is talk of an "AI war" brewing amongst the tech giants (mainly Google and Microsoft): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdHaeczStRA&ab_channel=JomaTech
Currently, the consensus is that Microsoft (and OpenAI) have made the first move and are in a winning position against Google: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5X1O5AS4nTc&ab_channel=ColdFusion
However, some are of the opinion that Google will eventually gain back lost ground and defeat Microsoft: https://twitter.com/tibo_maker/status/1631613907583246342?lang=en
The market will resolve YES if by the end of 2024, Google appears to have an edge over Microsoft in the "AI war"; the market will resolve NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00@IsaacLiu Microsoft probably has more revenue from the Copilot tools they've built into practically every cloud service: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-on-track-for-10bn-in-annual-revenue-from-ai-inference/
(Full disclosure: I'm also a Microsoftie.)
@JamesRomeril this market will inherently have a subjective element to it since i will be personally judging, but i will promise to largely abide by consensus opinion and am willing to discuss if there are disagreements. an example of something that will be used as a metric to decide this would be things like the relative performance of their state of the art models, etc.
@VictorLJZ the state of the board right now seems to be that openAI has the most powerful top model with o1 pro. And the most users.
Google has a great faster model with 1206, better video generation with Veo2, cheaper cost, and a fraction of the userbase. As well as longer context, some of their fundamental technology seems to be better or different.
Assuming the situation doesn't change by the end of the month would that be an openAI win? It's close but the most important stats (the highest tier model being stronger and userbase) seem to be what would matter the most.
My only thought here is strategically, Google is in a better position. Their potential integration of Gemini into phones and Google docs is an advantage, they have strong internal AI teams, and they don't have to pay Nvidia. They are still losing battles right now but are potentially winning the overall campaign.
@VictorLJZ I feel like this should be a NO resolution. Along with other catastrophes where it becomes clear that the only winning move was not to play.