Will >100 people in the US commute by flying car by 2024
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Jan 1
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Jetson is selling a personal VTOL flying vehicle, designed as a sort of flying car.

They've sold 220 units as of today according to their order page, with the delivery backlog in 2024 currently. They've only delivered 12 units as of the end of 2022: https://www.jetsonaero.com/order

There are a few other companies in this space, all with products that don't look like vaporware.

The question resolves to YES if >100 people in the US regularly commute to work via autopilot or self-piloted VTOL air travel by 2024. The count for # of people will be based on my own judgement of whatever evidence is available at the time.

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This is a worse version of a helicopter marketed as if it's something cool.

Confirming that this is "by end of 2024", given the 2025 market close date.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Yeah, that is correct

with jetson’s 20 min flight time I’m not sure if anyone could make it to work, and where would they park & charge?

@ian Seems like you could park it in a regular parking lot? Might take up a few spaces.

predicts NO

@MartinRandall They’d have to charge it unless they’re only 10 mins away, but maybe they can use the electric car chargers. Probably a good bit of competition for those tho these days

predicts YES

@ian Yeah I basically imagine this looking like a rooftop charger parking space eventually. On the timelines this post is talking about though, this is more like "a few hundred rich people have helipads"

predicts YES

Jetson ONE currently is classified as an Ultralight and doesn't require a pilot's license, but is subject to the following restrictions: https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-14/chapter-I/subchapter-F/part-103/subpart-B

Air Traffic Control will have a field day with this.

@a NYC alone had 120 people commuting via helicopter (https://www.businessinsider.com/blade-commuter-pass-helicopter-hamptons-nyc-service-price-2020-8) at one point.

Get at least 100 of them to switch to full autopilot or self-piloted device like the Jetson and you'e hit the target (Jetson ONE doesn't require a pilot's license).

predicts YES

@VivaLaPanda wait, don't helicopters count as "vertical take off and landing"?

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