Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?
64
10kṀ28k
2026
79%
chance

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

I will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question resolves as Yes if, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as No.

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opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 72% order

jim order up

filled a Ṁ4,000 YES at 82% order

@jim Thanks, I took most of it

@TimothyJohnson5c16 u realise this is just the start

@jim Maybe, but even if TSLA drops 50%, Elon will still be ahead.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 frankly I think this is looking bad for me. My thesis was that Elon's wealth would stagnate and others' would rise sharply. But if xAI keeps crushing then that won't happen

@jim I need to think about it more carefully TBH, rather than going off of vibes. But I did some forecasting last night about AI revenues at EOY and arrived at very big numbers.

@jim Hmmm, I still think it will take longer before AI starts generating lots of revenue. Stock valuations could go crazy anyway based on expectations, but I think they're already kind of crazy now 🤔

@TimothyJohnson5c16 they're crazy now, how crazy will they be EOY when AI companies are raking in 100+ billion in revenue from coding agents

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