Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Arizona be greater than in 2020 (0.4%)?
Basic
12
Ṁ2076resolved Nov 7
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Related markets:
/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2
/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-51af5a4e6350
/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-19d0d7c91571
/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-d54b8b02937c
/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-7bbf3bf11afa
/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-b1850c0c8416
The party elected is not relevant to the resolution of this question.
Last election, CNN reported 49.4% - 49.0%: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/arizona
I will use similar criteria for this market, and will not vote in it.
If CNN is reporting within 0.1% of this number, I will look at the actual voter numbers to determine which margin was greater.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Colorado be greater than in 2020 (13.5%)?
5% chance
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 US Presidential election in Wisconsin be greater than 1%?
17% chance
Will the winner of Arizona in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state?
98% chance
Will any state be decided by <0.5% in the 2024 election?
3% chance
How large is the (optimal) voter margin for the US 2024 Presidential Election?
What will be the margin in Arizona's Senate election?
Will Arizona have >80% voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election?
3% chance
Will Arizona have >90% voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election?
2% chance
Will Arizona have >95% voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election?
2% chance
What will be the margin of victory in Wisconsin in the 2024 Presidential election?