How much will further COVID boosters affect my chance of infection through 2024?
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Plus
8
Ṁ444
Dec 16
33%
Given NO further boosters, do I get infected by the end of 2024?
26%
Given ANY further boosters, do I get infected by the end of 2024?

I've gotten every COVID booster as it's come out (including the fall 2023 one). Since I've had an annoyingly large reaction for ~half of them, I want to know how big a difference this is really making.

This is a pair of conditional markets. One of the multiple choice options here will resolve YES/NO, and the other will N/A.

"An infection" means a case that I notice and, ideally, test positive for. If I don't notice having COVID at all, the relevant arm resolves NO.

Background on my overall COVID stance can be found here:

Will I get COVID in 2023?
14% chance. Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before the end of 2023. Otherwise, NO. Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them. Info I think will be helpful: As of Nov 30, 2022, I have had COVID once (in August 2022). My current strategy for COVID is "vaccinate and bug-chase". I'll get any future updated vaccines, but besides that I will take no precautions. My theory is that I'll keep my immunity current by getting exposed to each new strain as it arrives and that this is (a) likely to result in no infection severe enough to notice/test positive and (b) almost certain to result in no severe consequences of infection. I live in Seattle, WA, USA Relevant previous markets: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-in-2022-67b0e9b79c1d https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-a-second-time-in-2-120f9ab5a1c2 Close date updated to 2023-12-15 9:00 pm
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Will resolve Jan 1.

How often do you get tested? Do you get tested each time you feel sick?

@RobertCousineau I test every time I feel noticeably sick, with the following exception: I seem to have a lot of allergies, so mild sore throat and runny nose on their own only prompt me to test when they're unusually severe.

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