How much will I weigh on 1 Jan 2025? [(PROB+160)lbs]
Basic
3
Ṁ26Jan 2
34%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve PROB, where PROB is [(first weigh-in I make in 2025, in lbs) - 160lbs]. For example, if I weigh in at 205lbs, this market resolves to 45%.
If I weigh >260lbs, resolves YES. If <160lbs, NO. If I'm dead, resolves N/A.
Here's a ~realtime graph of my weight: https://www.beeminder.com/glorkmod/weight.png
Possibly relevant information (as of market creation):
taking semaglutide 1.5mg/week
weightlifting 2x/week
36 years old, male, 5'11"
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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