Will I weigh under 200 lbs on 2024-12-31? (-1.55 lbs/week)
➕
Plus
26
Ṁ5428
Dec 31
63%
chance

This morning I weighed 245.5 lbs according to my bathroom scale. Will I weigh under 200 lbs according to my bathroom scale on 2024-12-31?

I'm 50% successful on these months-long attempts, and the latest one seems unattainable, so let's try it again! As it's a commitment aid, I'll only bet and hold yes (and may bet past my personal belief, as long as I think it'll help motivate me).

I plan to provide an update in the comments at least once a month. If I forget to weigh in on 2024-12-31 I'll interpolate linearly between the closest weights before and after.

2024-06-08: 245.5 lbs

2024-07-04: 248.8 lbs

2024-08-01: 232.1 lbs

2024-09-01: 225.2 lbs

2024-10-01: 225.2 lbs

Current short-term market:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

2024-10-01: 225.2 lbs. I got down to 221.5 during the month, but had a rough week and a half at the end of it. Let's see if I can treat the new month as a reset point.

How are you doing?

Do you plan on using means that would lower your weight at the very moment you go on the scale while not being a true stable weight loss ? (e.g getting dehydrated)

@Mich Not intentionally. I won't be doing anything special at or leading up to the last weighing (and I haven't for the monthly ones I have been posting here). I'll just follow my normal daily routine.

If I miss by half a pound or something, so be it; I'm not interested in gaming the number.

2024-09-01: 225.2 lbs. If I keep up August's pace I should (barely) make it, so my goal for September is to build enough of a buffer that I can take a few days off at the holidays if I want.

bought Ṁ500 YES

Don’t let me down! I believe in you.

2024-08-01 was 232.1 lbs

248.8 today. Wrong direction!

are you opposed to taking semaglutide?

Not entirely. But even if I go that route, I'll have to figure out how to sustain things after going off it anyway, so I'm focusing on that first. I might reconsider when supply shortages aren't so frequent.

@phaen finding a new lifestyle that you can sustain is the key. I wish you all the luck with your attempt. I lost 30 ponds two years ago and still am at the same weight after I stopped my diet fase. Learning to understand my portions were too big, not that I was eating wrong things made a big mental change.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules