Kelvin Kiptum just broke the marathon WR today (10-8-2023) with a time of 2:00:35
@WyattFarace I've reopened the question to allow people to keep trading while we wait for results. If you had intended to close it early, I apologize; you're welcome to change it back.
How will you choose between "other", "later", and "never"? Those answers seem a little redundant to me.
Clearly, the main candidate for breaking two hours in an official marathon is Kelvin Kiptum. His next planned marathon is Rotterdam in April: World record holder Kelvin Kiptum reveals his next marathon - Canadian Running Magazine.
After that, I assume his next major race would be at the Olympics in August.
If it doesn't happen there, I don't think it will happen at all in 2024. Everyone is going to focus on the Olympics, and the scheduled course there is very hilly:
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Definitely won’t happen in Paris. I think he also had Berlin in mind but three big marathons in a year may be a tad much.
Allen Downey predicts this will happen in "2032 plus or minus 5 years": https://www.allendowney.com/blog/2023/10/09/another-step-toward-a-two-hour-marathon/
Kelvin Kiptum just broke the previous record by 34 seconds during his 3rd marathon at the age of 23. After an allegedly suboptimal training season (though who knows for sure). The two hour barrier is 35 seconds away, and Berlin is apparently a faster course than Chicago typically. I think this market now is basically a Kelvin Kiptum injury market.
Edit: Sounds like injury potential is substantial though https://sports.yahoo.com/kiptums-coach-fears-intense-training-191744243.html
@zjmiller Yeah sadly I fear he might become a shooting star (I fear the same for Alcaraz in tennis).