Does wearing polyester clothing actually cause negative health effects in humans according to the best evidence in 2034?
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2034
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Resolves YES if according to my best judgement at the close date of this market based on reviewing the evidence, wearing polyester clothing leads to significant negative health effects in humans. NO otherwise. N/A if it's impossible to resolve accurately.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

  • Negative health effects from children or adults chewing/sucking on polyester clothing will count if the risk is significant when considering realistic probability of this behavior

  • Negative health effects from microplastics in water supply due to polyester clothing disposal will NOT count - resolution will assume constant polyester clothing use by others

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  1. What if the negative health effects only come from chewing or sucking on your shirts? A lot of children do that, and some adults probably occasionally do to.

  2. What if the negative health effects come from throwing your clothes away and then microplastics get in the water supply?

@asmith

  1. Sure, as long as it's a reasonable risk such that the risk is actually significant overall when considering the probability of a child sucking on their shirt (eg doesn't have to suck it on eight hours a day for years).


2. In that case, the risk isn't personal to you so all other things being a non-issue, I would resolve it NO because I would resolve it assuming we're holding constant here whether other people are wearing polyester clothing.

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