Will the 538 & Nate Silver presidential forecasts once again disagree by >7% before the election?
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Ṁ1272Nov 5
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I will compare the percentage point difference between the probability of Kamala winning the election in the two models.
At the time of question creation, Nate Silver has Harris at 56.3%, and 538 has Harris winning 58.8% (i.e. 588 out of 1000 simulations), for a difference of 2.5% (percentage points).
This market resolves YES if the difference >7 percentage points at any point before the election.
Context
The models are currently quite close, but fairly recently they sharply disagreed (largely due to Nate's "convention bounce" effect). E.g. on August 29th, 538 had Kamala at ~58% while Nate had her at ~47%.
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