The actual role of DOGE in the text of the executive order creating it is just to “modernize federal technology and software.”

See here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/establishing-and-implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency/

In fact, it’s not even technically a new entity, it’s literally a reskin of the us digital service:

“The United States Digital Service is hereby publicly renamed as the United States DOGE Service (USDS)”

@SteveAcomb Obviously I don’t think the textual definition of his office really says much in terms of Elon’s intentions, but I find it telling about how seriously Trump is actually taking him.

Ummm based if true

Trump administration directs all federal diversity, equity and inclusion staff be put on leave and plans to lay them off

https://apnews.com/article/dei-trump-executive-order-diversity-834a241a60ee92722ef2443b62572540

@Gabrielle How many employees is that? It’s surprisingly hard to find numbers (granted, I’m lazy).

I made this (related) market because it's funny:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/politics/elon-musk-backtracks-federal-budget-cuts/index.html Some expectations management going on now....

Elon Musk now has a new, lower target number for DOGE’s budget cuts | CNN Politics

Elon Musk walked back his previous claim that he could cut at least $2 trillion from the federal budget, saying Wednesday that half that amount would be “an epic outcome.”

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/12/the-show-so-far-doge-edition.html

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/can-we-expect-large-federal-workforce-cuts.html

@NicoDelon I think there is good chance federal employees go up as they hire thousands of new border patrol agents and immigration agents to manage the mass deportation they keep talking about.

@datachef some numbers will go up, yes, which makes it all the more difficult to reach net minus 250k.

Feels like every time we have a new administration, people forget that the US government has a separation of powers.

Elon might achieve this by leveraging Twitter mobs to scare people into quitting: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/11/27/business/elon-musk-government-employees-targets

@TimothyJohnson5c16 How do you pressure 250,000 people?

@Shai You publicly attack a few people, and scare the rest into quitting for fear they'll be next.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Just firing them seems easier, but I can't say I would be opposed to this if it ends up working.

@Shai I don't know exactly how it works, but I think it's not so easy to just fire lots of government employees. For example, many (most?) of them are part of a union.

🤡 🤡 🤡

@Predictor we live in the best possible reality

What if the employees are on furlough or some kind of "you're fired", but we'll still keep you on the rolls for 2 years? That's what Elon said somewhere....

Are they still employed?

@VishalDoshi resolution criteria:

Outcome verified from FRED.

What matters is the FRED chart. If you want to adjust your bets based on potential furloughs or other such edge cases, you'll want to make sure you understand FRED's methodology.