Will X and TruthSocial announce a merger before July 4th?
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To resolve YES, the announcement could describe a merger, acquisition of one by the other, or a joint venture that covers the majority of their business

The merger only needs to be announced (not begun or completed). However, it needs to be a reasonably concrete/official announcement (simply statements about a possibility of merging would not be sufficient).

Resolution criteria partially inspired by Polymarket (but I am not bound to follow their resolution).

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

  • A credible, official announcement is required - an offhand tweet or casual statement will not qualify

  • The announcement must appear to be a genuine attempt at merging, even if commentators believe the merger is unlikely to succeed

  • If a merger is officially announced but later cancelled before July 4th, this will still resolve as YES as long as the initial announcement met the criteria

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What about if the merger is officially announced, but then scuttled/backed out of before July 4th?

@HereIsBigAl description:

The merger only needs to be announced (not begun or completed). However, it needs to be a reasonably concrete/official announcement (simply statements about a possibility of merging would not be sufficient).

it doesn’t matter if they later back out. But the announcement needs to be seemingly serious. An offhand tweet that no one believes doesn’t count. It needs to be a credible, official announcement (it’s fine if commentators believe the merger is still unlikely but the attempt is genuine)

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