Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033? | Manifold

Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033?

Plus

17

Ṁ606

2033

55%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

4x in ten years is a 14.9% annual growth rate. This seems unlikely to happen if not for economic growth driven by AI. This is basically a bet that AI bring significant economic growth within ten years.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The S&P could also rise due to high inflation rates (see the Argentinian stock market as an extreme example). I would give a lower chance if you considered the inflation adjusted growth rate.

Related questions

Will the S&P 500 close higher at the end of 2024 than the end of 2023?

Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 15% over 2024?

Will S&P 500 increase in 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 5% over 2024?

Will the S&P 500 change by over 1% on January 20, 2025?

Will the S&P 500 increase in 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 20% over 2024?

Will the S&P 500 be above 4500 at the end of 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2030?

Related questions

Will the S&P 500 close higher at the end of 2024 than the end of 2023?

Will the S&P 500 change by over 1% on January 20, 2025?

Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024?

Will the S&P 500 increase in 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 15% over 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 20% over 2024?

Will S&P 500 increase in 2024?

Will the S&P 500 be above 4500 at the end of 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 5% over 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules