What is the Risk Free Interest Rate on Manifold Markets until Election Day 2024?
➕
Plus
106
Ṁ150k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO

This question will resolve to NO on November 6, 2024.

This exists as a baseline for other election predictions, especially ones that cannot happen - this market should trade at the same value as whether e.g. Hillary Clinton will run for president, or whether Trump will be president prior to the next inauguration day.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@ZviMowshowitz can you resolve? thanks!

This question will resolve to NO on November 6, 2024.

This is too low, but of course there's no reason to adjust it upwards

predicted NO

@Tumbles Not quite true. If you think someone will need to buy out for liquidity you could try and turn a profit. But mostly doesn't seem wise.

@ZviMowshowitz I sold my NO at 1% for a +4% election-related arbitrage opportunity, so I guess this eventuality came true.

Related market. Funny to see how users price differently.

predicted YES

If anyone is interested in borrowing me 3k for the shirt, I would return a lot more than 1.6% :D

predicted NO

@kottsiek Are you on Discord? PM me. IsaacKing#7376

0,06 seems way too low. You can get 2-3% on practically guaranteed outcomes on shorter delivery dates.

predicted YES

@kottsiek Why not bet this market down instead? The change of this happening is basically 0. Maybe people think a random user has a 2% chance of misresolving. Or Manifold is just slightly inefficent.

@kottsiek Manifold is totally inefficient. One of many inefficiency mechanisms: profits and costs are rounded to the nearest M$, so you have to bet very large amounts of M$ to get any profit on markets with low/high probabilities.

Also, users do mis-resolve, or forget to resolve, or many other things.

@kottsiek If I bid this market to 0, will you buy it from me if I need liquidity?

@AdriaGarrigaAlonso I don't know about this rounding thing. Isn't that just an artifact of the UI? If I look at the API, profits balances are represented as floating-point.

predicted YES

@MP easier ways to make mana

predicted YES

@AdriaGarrigaAlonso forgeting to resolve will be fixed by the admins eventually (at most two weeks later in my experience) and two weeks should not really make a difference on such a long horizon.

predicted YES

@kottsiek Buying YES is definitely the more fun way! I had previously bought some low and sold it high to @EthanGlass (also thank for wishing me good luck @Gurkenglas). And honestly, I personally think another spike like that is totally possible:

predicted YES

@1941159478 Your market existing probably increased the odds by a lot. We'll see. What do you think is the "correct" annual risk free interest rate?

predicted YES

@kottsiek I guess I agree with @AdriaGarrigaAlonso that Manifold is just not that coherent. There's a bunch of markets with a resolution date way out in the future and an extreme probability. But also this:

@ScottLawrence ah that's nice, I didn't know.

@1941159478 The creator of the Trump rationalussy market hasn’t created any markets so it’s definitely not risk free, while this market is by someone who has a public image to uphold and I trust not to misresolve this type of market. I’d guess 10% is probably more accurate for the Trump market (actually I’ll go over and bet that up now).

Oh, and the creator of the Trump market has 7000 YES shares in it. Seems quite risky.

The lack of a interest rate in markets and the lack of shorting (the market on Taiwan invasion is overestimating by 2 to 3x) but at the extremes, you can only bet at the no and this means getting a 2% return many times while shorting would mean getting a 50% return. Therefore, manifold as it is will always have the inability of forecast low probability events.
gifting 10 points for inventing this :)

@M Can you explain to me why this is cool/useful?

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung As it allows to measure one of distortions present on markets

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules