By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
Standard
15
Ṁ262Jan 1
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Revealed - it was not known prior to the post getting famous, by most readers of the post, that it was written by an AI. They may have suspected so, but it was not told to them.
Only posts put on LW after the start of this market contract will be eligible candidates
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
https://www.lesswrong.com/allPosts?sortedBy=top&timeframe=allTime to get an estimate for how many upvotes are common on LW
Related questions
Related questions
By the end of 2024, will at least one >100 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
18% chance
By the end of 2024, will any LessWrong, EA, or Alignment forum post with at least 100 upvotes be revealed to have been written by an AI?
40% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
50% chance
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
50% chance
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?
70% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
42% chance
Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?
38% chance
[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
46% chance
Will 50%+ of the content in my work emails be written by AI by end of 2025?
41% chance
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?
76% chance