Emergency could be an epidemic, a pandemic, or even smaller scale ones as long as WHO calls it an emergency or implies it to be an emergency
Giving this the old Fermi estimation:
1) AI designs pathogen from scratch, unaided: 20%
2) AI designs pathogen with significantly input from human: 90%
3) Pathogen escapes laboratory: 10%
4) Pathogen spreads after escape to degree of causing an emergency: 50%
So depending on whether you’d accept 2 instead of just 1) we’re talking 1%-5%.
@AlexbGoode Hard to tell what is acceptable but easier to tell what is not acceptable. If I use chatGPT to format or beautify my (self-written) email to a friend, that doesn't count as chatGPT writing the email. If I tell chatGPT to write the email based on so and so information, and edit it myself a bit and send it, then that counts as chatGPT having written the email
@firstuserhere How do you define majority? What do you mean by heavy lifting? How does the process of creating a pathogen looks like? I am no biologist but I imagine a lot of the time spent is lab work and experiments. Since we don't have robots that can do this (yet) most of the heavy lifting in terms of experimentation has to be done by humans.
Is a yes resolution preconditioned on robots being able to do biology lab work?
@AlexbGoode AI iteratively guides the design and the experiments are done by the human researchers and fed back to the AI system for debugging and outputting a better design until it works
@AlexbGoode Question specified “designed” so I had assumed any production was human. AI only providing instructions.