![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2Ffirstuserhere%252Fa1aef01b78aa.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?
Basic
16
Ṁ9592028
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Chinchilla presented The Scaling Laws
I'll not hold more than 10 shares in this market, though may make small token bets once in a while.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
43% chance
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?
86% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
39% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
74% chance
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
38% chance
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
43% chance
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
65% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
30% chance
Will software-side AI scaling appear to be suddenly discontinuous before 2025?
18% chance
By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?
75% chance