Impact of AI: Will the number of lawyers in the U.S. decrease by 2030?
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2030
45%
chance

The number of lawyers in the US has been growing at a faster rate than the overall population:

However, in 2020, 2021, and 2022, and for the first time in 100 years, the number of active lawyers in the US decreased. From 2022 to 2023, the number of active lawyers rose slightly (+0.3%). Morever, artificial intelligence might negatively impact lawyers and slow their growth.

Will the number of active lawyers in the US in 2030 be lower than 1,331,290 (2023 data)?

The question will be resolved using the American Bar Association (ABA) 2030 National Lawyer Population Survey. In 2023, there were 1,331,290 active lawyers in the US.

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2024: 1,322,649 (-0.6%) (source)

"The number of active lawyers grew in the first half of that 10-year period, peaking in 2019 at 1.352 million, then dipped slightly over the second half of that period to 1.322 million in 2024, according to the survey."
"In the 21st century, the growth of the legal profession has slowed. In the previous century, from 1900 to 2000, the number of lawyers rose 793% — from 114,460 to just over 1 million, an average growth of nearly 8% a year. By contrast, the number of lawyers nationwide has grown roughly 1% a year since 2000"

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