@Soli Thanks. There's two high value steps in the AI chip supply chain, the design and the fabrication. Currently OpenAI uses chips designed by Nvidia and fabricated by TSMC.

The rumors a few months ago were quite vague so everyone was assuming that OpenAI was trying to do the design themselves, which is a much easier undertaking than to do than the fabrication. Google did it years ago and Amazon and Microsoft are trying to do it too. But this latest report says that they instead want to partner with one of the existing companies to build new fabs, and this market is specifically about that latter claim.

You said that either of these would qualify for your market, so this market is a subset of your market, though I don't think they should be trading as far apart as they are (currently 39% vs 79%)

What kind of announcement? There are a bunch of different things that can be announced.

@jacksonpolack yeah good question.

To resolve yes immediately, they must announce a partnership with a fab company and that they are constructing a new fab. A specific location or other details about the fab are not required.

This seems unlikely, but there are worlds where they do this and don’t publicly announce that they’re doing it until later? If it is widely accepted at the end of the year that they have funded the construction of a new fab but they haven’t officially announced it, I will also count that as yes.

Sorry for changing the criteria a bit, I’m trying to figure out how to best match the question title and the spirit of whether new fabs will actually get built, feel free to ask if you have more questions.

@ahalekelly If OpenAI pre-buys fab capacity, or buys an option to buy fab capacity in the future, without that being directly tied to the construction of a new fab, that does not make this market resolve Yes