The Flynn Effect refers to the observed rise in IQ scores across generations, which was observed through the 20th century until the 1990s. Recently a reversal has been observed. Some believe that this is due to dysgenics — as darwinian selection pressure has weakened (much lower child mortality, welfare state), there is dysgenic fertllity — being smart no longer gives you an advantage to have more children as it has in the past. There has been an observed higher fertility among lower IQ people. Others believe it is environmentally caused, especially by lapsing standards in education and a declining culture. Or is this simply an anomolous finding?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289623000156
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a43469569/american-iq-scores-decline-reverse-flynn-effect/
https://www.psypost.org/2015/06/the-less-intelligent-are-more-fertile-so-why-arent-humans-becoming-dumber-over-time-35026
Question closes in 2050, if in western populations, the trend shows lower iq then YES. If no downward trend then NO.
1,000
3.00Are we weighting Western populations in some way or doing national averages? That matters a lot because aging and migration, both of which seem likely, can affect IQ in either direction. I doubt the effects on Western populations will be dominated by "Idiocracy" because urban/rural economic and cultural differences is the main driver of birth rates over a single generation.
Oof, lots to unpack here. Dysgenic fertility, idiocracy, and reversal of Flynn effect are three related but different things. (I do have high priors on all three.) The last paragraph seems like the question will resolved based on the third.