Yo

@traders All Trump 2020 states were called for him. So, it resolves No. @Manifold Sweeps version should resolve as well.

@SirSalty

@bagelfan many states called

Let’s resolve this

@creator resolves NO?

@polymathematic Alaska has not been called yet

She’s going to win Iowa

@esusatyo maybe. Need a market on how many states she flips.

Nate still has this at ~50%:

@nic_kup I think the models always had this too high. There’s only around 2% chance of a flip without NC, but the models give this 10% or something.

@bagelfan thoughts on Iowa flipping now?

I think it's more like 5%.

Given Trump wins NC,

The odds Kamala wins TX, FL, IA, OH, or AK are much higher than 2%.

What's the evidence that Silver or 538 are incorrectly modeling state correlation?

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Yeah Iowa has changed that number now. 5% seems about right.

I don't have access to Silver's model, but I saw a screenshot at one point (before the Selzer Iowa poll) that showed 40% chance of NC but 53% chance of flip, which seemed way off to me.

She will not with this policies!

Approaching Trump rapidly in North Carolina, according to 538. Potential arbitrage opportunity:

Conditional on Harris getting elected, will Iran obtain Nuclear weapons: https://manifold.markets/nic_kup/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030-1m684x7u18

Updated description: If for whatever reason the Democratic nominee changes this question will be about the new nominee.

@bagelfan more than 2m Americans have already voted. More than 440k have voted in just one state.

@becauseyoudo It’s very very unlikely but questions should ideally deal with foreseeable edge cases.

@bagelfan lol, someone getting afraid of Biden saying he's back in?

@PlasmaBallin Uh, nope.

@bagelfan I know, I was just joking about the recent event where he joked that he was back in.

@PlasmaBallin I was thinking the chance of nominee change comes from Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope, currently on 1.8% to win the election.

Missouri

@DaEpicFirestar Why would Missouri be any more likely than Florida or Texas, let alone North Carolina?

@DaEpicFirestar Missouri is Trump +20 or so this year. Trump +15 is the floor.

@DaEpicFirestar Bet on it:

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-1ccd026993f1