Will the Discover Capital One merger go through?
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Plus
19
Ṁ932
Jan 1
73%
chance
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Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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Will this market's end date extend if merger process is still ongoing? Or resolve NO if not merged by December?

@dglid extend

Market-implied odds as of 2/20:

  • Discover shareholders get 1.0192 share of Capital One = $140.86

  • Discover trading at $126.42, last closed at $110.49

  • Discover movement today: $15.93

  • Spread if it closes today: $140.86 - $110.49 = $30.37

  • Implied probability: $15.93 / $30.37 = 52.4%

Edit: It's a couple % higher if you account for interest and time of closing being several months out.

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