Will the Discover Capital One merger go through?
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Ṁ932Jan 1
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Market-implied odds as of 2/20:
Discover shareholders get 1.0192 share of Capital One = $140.86
Discover trading at $126.42, last closed at $110.49
Discover movement today: $15.93
Spread if it closes today: $140.86 - $110.49 = $30.37
Implied probability: $15.93 / $30.37 = 52.4%
Edit: It's a couple % higher if you account for interest and time of closing being several months out.