This resolves YES if OpenAI’s next major GPT/LLM release has a new and anthropomorphic name, similar to Claude, Sora, or even Grok. It doesn’t have to be a common human name, or even a plausible human name, it just has to be more of a ~name~ versus “GPT-5” or whatever.
This resolves NO if it’s just called GPT-5.
KEEP READING IF YOU’D LIKE MORE DETAILS FOR ALL EDGE CASES I CAN CURRENTLY PREDICT, FOR THE HARDCORE PREDICTORS ON THIS SITE:
I will not bet in this market to remain objective over what constitutes an anthropomorphic name, in case there’s some edge case like “ALF” or “BEN-5” or something.
If OpenAI releases some anthropomorphized name for the INTERFACE (chatGPT —> Lauren or whatever) that has no bearing on this market.
If OpenAI RENAMES their current flagship LLM (GPT-4) into an anthropomorphic name, this will ALSO resolve YES. (I’d imagine this would very likely be coupled with some sort of update but who knows)
But if OpenAI doesn’t release a new model by the end of June, 2025, this will ALSO resolve NO. Basically, I would anticipate that this implies that they are just updating their current model under the hood, and I don’t want the time horizon to be too far, since as time increases the probability of this probably approaches 100%.
If OpenAI releases some halfway update called GPT-4.5 or even unnamed, the market will remain open and will not resolve until a major update is released.
If OpenAI releases an entirely separate LLM model for some specialized purpose that couldn’t really be described as a successor model to ChatGPT / GPT-4, that will not cause this market to resolve, regardless of if it has an anthropomorphic name.
If OpenAI release a clear major update and successor to GPT-4 but it is called, say, GPT-Q or something, I will not wait until June 2025 to see if they release ANOTHER model that has an anthropomorphic name. It will just resolve NO.
If OpenAI releases a new model and it is called BOTH GPT-5 AND an anthropomorphized name, I will resolve based on which one is used more frequently in its release, and will do my very, very, very best to do this in an unbiased manner, and may put out a poll and/or consult with Manifold superusers.
1,000
3.00reading through the criteria, I assume today's announcement of GPT-4o counts?
@shankypanky Hmm I’m not sure, I do think this fits more into a GPT-4.5 level update, even though they’ve described it as a “flagship model” (which 4.5 would’ve been as well?)
But I do think this is evidence that they’re keeping the naming convention alive for the time being and will likely call GPT-5 “GPT-5”?
@benshindel nothing that you don't! Just seems unlikely given the amazing name recognition "GPT" has.
@12c498e For the purposes of this question it is not considered such. This question makes no claims on the actual importance of such an update 😆
@shankypanky That inspired this!
There are also a bunch of GPT-5 markets that have ambiguous resolutions if it’s not named explicitly “GPT-5” so hopefully ppl can use this market to hedge
@benshindel I had a feeling! I also hadn't considered it anthropomorphic to name it but you're right 🤖