It looks like everybody already knows what is threat is about (some kind of nuclear weapons in space from russia), there is a topic about that on manifold — https://manifold.markets/news/mystery-thread
This market is about the official classification state of "national security threat" that Mike Turne mentioned.
This market will be resolved YES shorty after there is info from several trusted sources that this threat is declassified. (If I have missed the moment and this is declassified before I created this market I will resolve it as YES as soon I have good evidence that this has happened)
This market will be resolved NO if in the beginning of 2025 I will not be able to find any good evidence that it is declassified. I will use timezone of USA Washington, D.C.
I'm not going to bet on this market.
1,000
3.00John Kirby confirmed that it is Russia
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/russia-space-weapon-classified-confirmed-b5beacf7
From the video that is at that page. Starting from 00:38 John Kirby is saying
> Intelligence community has serious concerns about a broad declassification of this intelligence. They also assest that starting with private engagement rather than immediately publishing the intelligence could be a much more effective approach.
Based of this I don't feel that this market can be resolved YES now.