Background

Cuba has been under communist rule since the 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro. The regime currently faces significant challenges including severe economic difficulties, high inflation, widespread food shortages, and a continuing brain drain as young professionals leave the country. Recent years have seen unprecedented protests and record-low participation in elections, indicating growing public dissatisfaction.

Despite these challenges, the Communist Party maintains strict control through state security forces and a comprehensive system of political repression. A new penal code implemented recently further criminalizes dissent and strengthens the government's ability to suppress opposition.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if before January 1, 2035:

• The Communist Party of Cuba loses its constitutional status as the only legal political party

• OR the government officially transitions to a multi-party democratic system

• OR the communist government is overthrown or peacefully transitions out of power

The market will resolve NO if:

• The Communist Party remains in control of Cuba's government on January 1, 2035

• OR if the Communist Party transitions power to another authoritarian single-party system that maintains communist ideology

Considerations

• While Cuba faces severe economic and social pressures, the regime has historically demonstrated remarkable resilience, surviving the fall of the Soviet Union and multiple U.S. administrations' attempts to isolate it

• The regime maintains strong control over the military and security services

• Previous periods of economic hardship and popular discontent have not led to regime change

• The resolution timeframe (until 2035) provides a significant window during which internal or external catalysts could emerge