Background:
This market aims to investigate what the SALT Tax Deduction Limitation will be in various tax years for various filing types.
Resolution:
>=AMOUNT / FILINGSTATUS/ TAXYEAR
A market resolves YES if the SALT Tax Limitation is at least AMOUNT for a tax payer filing FILINGSTATUS in TAXYEAR.
The AMOUNT is inclusive, so it resolves YES in a tie.
Tax year is based on the US Government definition - i.e. many tax payers file for TY 2023 in ~April 2024.
Example answer:
>=$20000 / Single /TY 2025
This market resolves YES if the SALT Tax Limitation is at least $20,000 for a tax payer filing Single in Tax Year 2025.
Edge cases:
If laws change so there is no comparable filing status in a tax year then that market will resolve N/A.
AMOUNT is based on the actual limit that affects the tax payer - not based on any laws passed in that year that take effect in the future.
The market resolves based on the best rate a tax payer could use for that Tax Year (e.g. ">=$20,000 / Married-Jointly / TY2024" could resolve YES if any last minute laws are passed, but is on track to resolve NO based on the status quo at the IRS deadline).
Notes:
The markets are independent and more may be added if they are requested and interesting to me.
Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Resolution Timing: The market will resolve right after the normal IRS tax deadline, typically mid-April. However, it may resolve earlier if there are last-minute changes affecting the SALT Tax Deduction Limitation. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00@Eliza I was intended to resolve each of these right after the normal IRS tax deadline? Mid april 2025 for this one.
But not sure how often there are last minute changes to this type of thing, maybe it is acceptable to resolve it earlier.
@bluefrog I don't have strong feelings about resolving it earlier, just wanted to see what you were planning.
As far as realistic chances for changes, I don't know the actual rules framework around the timing but I would be extremely surprised if it was possible to change the prior year tax rules after some people have already started filing. But maybe it's possible. Anything is possible.
Context:
Prior to the TCJA-2018 there effectively was no limit. That law set a $10,000 limit for taxpayers of all filing types.
Currently the status quo is that this change will sunset at the end of 2025. If this happens then the SALT Tax Limitation would be unlimited in TY2026 and all TY2026 would resolve YES.
Do bettors think the law will sunset? Do they think there will be a compromise law which keeps the limits, but modifies them? This market attempts to explore those possibilities.