Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on NCVS)
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Dec 31
24%
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Resolves based on whole-year comparisons of National Crime Victimization Survey data (https://bjs.ojp.gov/programs/ncvs) between 2022 and 2023, for "violent crime excluding simple assault," which includes murder, nonnegligent manslaughter, rape/sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault. The rate of violent crime excluding simple assault was 2.91 per 1000 in 2021.

Will resolve as soon as I become aware that NCVS data for 2023 has been posted. Data for 2021 was published in October 2022.

Resolves N/A if NCVS data for 2023 does not become available in 2024, or if like-to-like comparison becomes impossible.

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It's hard to predict if violent crime rates will rise in 2023 without the full data. Still, any insights from the NCVS will be valuable. After all that thinking, why not relax with a slice from Papa’s Pizzeria ?

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