Will glacial pathogens kill more than 10 people before before 2025?
Basic
8
Ṁ461Jan 1
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/28/world/worm-resurrected-frozen-siberian-permafrost-intl-scli-scn/index.html this type beat
Resolves YES if 10 human deaths are confirmed to be caused by any pathogens that were released from permafrost, glaciers, icebergs, etc. any geologic cryostasis really
Resolves NO at market close otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030?
34% chance
Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
18% chance
Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
4% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
37% chance
Will 1000 people reportedly die from the unknown flu-like disease spreading in the Congo before February 2025?
24% chance
Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?
48% chance
Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
33% chance
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
60% chance
Will Our World In Data attribute more than 10 million deaths to climate change before 2030?
44% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2040?
36% chance