This question resolves according to polling published by Civiqs on their recurring question: "Do you support or oppose the Black Lives Matter movement?"
If support for Black Lives Matter, according to Civiqs polling, is net positive (i.e. 1% or higher) for any amount of time before the end of 2024, this question resolves YES, otherwise this question resolves NO.
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Based on bad memories from this market: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/2023-will-biden-approval-ratings-hi
Does this resolve based on the graph or the underlying data? i.e. if it hits 0% but with technically 0.1% (positive) net support, does it resolve YES?
@kaizen Does Civiqs provide data in decimal points? As far as I see they publish rounded up or down to nearest integer, so the graph should be equivalent to the data.
Interesting that it went up during 2018-19. I can't think of any clear reason for that (I guess general thermostatic politics+ Trump being president? But you'd expect that to be more front loaded).
@ShakedKoplewitz I would guess the increase was engineered (by astroturfing and such) by the libs in preparation for the Floyd protests.