Will the world become more authoritarian in 2024?
Basic
6
Ṁ60Mar 1
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the world average democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
Below are the world averages from the previous decade with net change in brackets:
2023: 5.23 (-0.06)
2022: 5.29 (+0.01)
2021: 5.28 (-0.09)
2020: 5.37 (-0.07)
2019: 5.44 (-0.04)
2018: 5.48 (no change)
2017: 5.48 (-0.04)
2016: 5.52 (no change)
2015: 5.52 (-0.03)
2014: 5.55 (+0.02)
2013: 5.53 (+0.01)
Here is a visualization of country scores included in the last report:
If the world average democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
70% chance
Will China become more authoritarian in 2024?
70% chance
Will France become more authoritarian in 2024?
64% chance
Will Canada become more authoritarian in 2024?
28% chance
Will Mexico become more authoritarian in 2024?
53% chance
Will India become more authoritarian in 2024?
65% chance
Which regions will become more authoritarian in 2024?
Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2024?
33% chance
Will Germany become more authoritarian in 2024?
69% chance
Will democracy around the world continue to decline in 2024, according to Freedom House?
72% chance