Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
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Plus
63
Ṁ3909
Mar 1
88%
chance
Trump wins US presidency
+18%
on
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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opened a Ṁ50 YES at 45% order

Intense polarization and diminishing faith in government seem to be big factors.

opened a Ṁ200 NO at 67% order

Base rate since 2006 = 7/18 = 39%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

Trump election chance = 45-50%

I don't understand why this is at 71%

@Siebe The "data":

This is the Ecommunist, which is left-wing propaganda, and will 100% lower the index in 2024 now that papa Trump is back. You may have had a good point prior to election, though.

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