The United States has a history of government shutdowns. The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019.
For the purposes of this question, a "government shutdown" must involve furloughing of workers. For example, the brief shutdown on 9 Feb 2018 lasted only a few hours and did not furlough government workers, and so would not count.
This question resolves YES if a government shutdown involving furloughed workers happens on or between 1 Jan 2025 and 31 Dec 2025, and otherwise resolves NO when the year ends (midnight EST).
Update: A shutdown must begin in 2025 to count for this market. A shutdown that begins in 2024 and continues into 2025 will not count.
1,000
3.00@Balasar Great question. I'm leaning towards not counting a shutdown that begins in 2024, only counting a shutdown that begins in 2025. This is consistent with what I imagined when I originally wrote this question, where something occurring/happening means that it is triggered/begins in 2025. If anyone feels strongly that I should go the other way, feel free to make the argument, and if there is not objection, I'll amend the wording in 24 hours to clarify that the shutdown must begin in 2025 to count.