I like this very much. Betting YES. But will it be able to resolve? (Or might this get stuck in limbo, just like the Covid lab-leak bet?)

Nicotine on it's own has proven benefits to guard against neurodegenerative diseases, it's the smoking that causes most of the harm. If we're talking about taking Nicotine on it's own without anything else, I do think it's beneficial.

As with many drugs, nicotine’s beneficial effects are weighed against its detriments, taking into account dose and frequency of exposure.

https://www.echelon.health/nicotine-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/

Is LSD Good for You?

It depends.

@CypherDa also the resolution criteria are quite fuzzy - I guess a difference is that LSD (as with other psychedelic tryptamines) raises the temperature/variance of your brain, so it's kind of neutral - people come out different in some sense, whether that means moving out of the local minimum of severe depression, or becoming open to woo/vassarite-epistemics/weird ideas.

Nicotine on the other hand seems to improve executive function slightly in basically everyone, lowering depression and ADHD symptoms a bit, and a bunch of other things. It seems a bit more directed (albeit weaker) in it's effects, so the notion of it being "Good for You" seems somewhat different from saying this of LSD.

Addiction is probably an issue of combining nicotine with MAOIs. - https://gwern.net/nicotine#dependence

i will bet my entire net worth on yes

I’m gonna be the contrarian and say “yes,”

I don’t find the cancer argument convincing, as introducing basically anything into a cell culture under the correct circumstances seems to cause cancer. And even if it’s true that nicotine addiction causes a spike in smoking, it’s still the smoking that is harmful.

But the real reason that I’m chiming in is that research showing positive effects of nicotine as treatment for “long COVID” and myalgic encephalitis is snowballing. Also the use of nicotine to treat schizophrenia is fascinating reading,

Disclaimer: I learned all of this doing research for a friend with ME/CFS. I do not personally use nicotine in any form and have no skin in the game besides an amusing MM bet,

Several lines of evidence indicate that nicotine may contribute to the development of cancer. Evidence from experimental in vitro studies on cell cultures, in vivo studies on rodents as well as studies on humans inclusive of epidemiological studies indicate that nicotine itself, independent of other tobacco constituents, may stimulate a number of effects of importance in cancer development.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4553893/

Might be a bit like caffeine. But probably not significantly beneficial, all else being equal

Gwern has a pretty compelling argument that it could be +EV: https://gwern.net/nicotine

Nicotine is a neuroactive substance that triggers the release of neurotransmitters such as dopamine, causing a pleasurable sensation. However, due to its actions on the brain, it also leads to nicotine dependence because, after several consumption sessions, the brain no longer functions properly. The brain constantly strives to maintain balance in the body. If nicotine artificially stimulates the release of neurotransmitters, the brain will attempt to reduce the amount of neurotransmitters it naturally produces. After a period of time, the brain becomes accustomed to nicotine and produces very little dopamine naturally. When nicotine is no longer present, the brain enters a state of depression. It takes a long time for the brain to return to its optimal level of dopamine.

The consensus amongst nootropic cognoscenti is that it can make you smarter but it also can get you started smoking/vaping/chewing.  These are Pretty Bad and the risk of using tobacco/vapes isn’t worth being a little smarter.

Gwern has a writeup on it.  If you really want to use it, try breaking nicotine gum into small pieces and using very sparingly.

How does this resolve

@TheBayesian Based on the best argument by the end of the year.