What will the lower-end of the Fed funds rate be after the FOMC meeting in [month] in 2024? Resolves to 32×(r - 2.5%).
Basic
11
Ṁ855
Dec 31
64%
November
58%
December
Resolved
88%
January
Resolved
88%
March
Resolved
88%
May
Resolved
88%
June
Resolved
88%
July
Resolved
72%
September

Each answer resolves to 32×(r - 2.5%), where r is the lower-end of the target range for the Federal funds rate, in percentage points, after the US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting in the given month in 2024.

For example, if the FOMC leaves rates unchanged with a target range of 5.25–5.5% in their January meeting, then January will resolve to 32×(5.25% - 2.50%) = 88%.

If this result would be outside the range [0%, 100%], then the answer resolves to 0% or 100%, whichever is closest.

Here is a handy table mapping the fed funds rate target range to resolution probability:

2.50–2.75%: resolves to 0%
2.75–3.00%: resolves to 8%
3.00–3.25%: resolves to 16%
3.25–3.50%: resolves to 24%
3.50–3.75%: resolves to 32%
3.75–4.00%: resolves to 40%
4.00–4.25%: resolves to 48%
4.25–4.50%: resolves to 56%
4.50–4.75%: resolves to 64%
4.75–5.00%: resolves to 72%
5.00–5.25%: resolves to 80%
5.25–5.50%: resolves to 88%
5.50–5.75%: resolves to 96%

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@chrisjbillington Can resolve Sep, thanks.

bought Ṁ10 September YES

@chrisjbillington June and July can resolve, thanks.

To clarify, if I expect a result of "no change" for March's meeting, ergo 88%, I would bet "No" given that it's currently at 80% ?

@BernardGuerrero You would bet YES from 80% up to a maximum of 88%.

Given you say FOMC I assume it’s US, but it’s probably worth specifying

Cool market!

@Gen I've got two characters remaining in the title, so I've added it to the description, hopefully that'll do.

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