Resolves YES on a Starship flying to space (>100km altitude) and returning to Earth in one piece in 2024.
A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a Starship intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts. A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count. A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.
Starship must not explode for at least ten seconds after landing for it to count as having landed in one piece.
The relevant timezone for "in 2024" is local time at the landing site.
See also:
/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos
Related questions
@notarealuser They haven't shown/announced any mechanism for the catching points though, even for V2. As far as I know, catching ship is just not a priority for this year.
@Mqrius They might not catch it, and just land it for the data. Catching the booster and ship on same tower due rapid reusability still seems a insanely difficult task.
@notarealuser Skirt has changed since they landed ship on legs so I am not sure if that would mean lots of design work.
For first time, ship will stay in orbit for some time, maybe a couple of days, to give time to move booster out of the way. But yeah it sounds crazy.
@ChristopherRandles Did they say they'd move the booster out of the way? It would make some sense but I've never seen that mentioned, and it doesn't seem very SpaceX style.
@Mqrius I don't think I have seen it stated, I am just assuming. Operationally I am not sure how much refurbishment work will be needed but would guess SpaceX would want to leave booster on site eventually but I am thinking it will take time before we get there. For the first time, why wouldn't you move as much as possible out of the way?
Similar question with different options for dates:
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land-o1e8o780ic
The repeated use of "in one piece" in the market description makes me think that even a single heat shield tile needing to be replaced after landing would prevent this market from resolving YES.
Is my interpretation correct? Otherwise, how much of the heat shield must survive for this market to resolve YES?
@ForTruth No, "in one piece" is being used in the sense of "intact". So a molten ball of sludge comprising the entire rocket would not count even if it is literally a single piece.
It might not be a perfectly bright line as to what losses and minor damage can reasonably be disregarded as expected maintenance and refurbishment after a successful landing, vs which should disqualify a landing from counting as intact or "in one piece", but I am definitely unconcerned about heat tiles.
I think probably anything not described as a "rapid unscheduled disassembly" I would count as landing in one piece. Perhaps there is some edge case I haven't considered of extensive damage that nonetheless isn't a RUD, but nothing comes to mind immediately.
@chrisjbillington We now have an example of "extensive damage that isn't a RUD", namely one or more flaps having a giant hole in it. I'm guessing that would be fine for this market, no?
Also this market is about the second stage, right? Not the booster?
@Mqrius @chrisjbillington
Next step up from large hole in flap hinge area, would be:
flap(s) detaches but rocket still caught
I cannot see them attempting catch with a large hole in hinge area of flap but I could see them attempting catch but a flap torn off by the tower/chopsticks.
Perhaps also hanging precariously from one chopstick for 10 seconds before falling and 1) RUD or 2) falling and breaking into several pieces without exploding or 3) Crumpling up but largely in one piece.
Crumpling up on fall from chopsticks without exploding may seems unlikely but may as well address the above as examples so traders know what they are betting on?
@jks Not planned for Starship, but just covering all bases! It has been done for other rockets:
Anyone want to loan me some mana so I can bet I’m illiquid.
Interest on payment negotiable