Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?
➕
Plus
59
Ṁ4766
2050
33%
Idiocracy (2006)
25%
Her (2013)
9%
Other
9%
Interstellar (2014)
4%
WALL-E (2008)
3%
Ready Player One (2018)
2%
Children of Men (2006)
1.9%
Gattaca (1997)
1.6%
Minority Report (2002)
1.4%
The Matrix (1999)
1.3%
Elysium (2013)
1.2%
Ad Astra (2019)
1.2%
Back to the Future Part II (1989)
1.1%
2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
1%
Wag the Dog (1997)

Suggest additional options to be added in the comments below.


Resolves to the results of poll in 2049.

I will not bet in this market. [Edit: One exception was to account for a typo...]

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bought Ṁ2 Gattaca (1997) YES

In 25 years?

A Boy And His Dog (1975)

bought Ṁ10 Idiocracy (2006) YES

I think “The Road” would be a great addition

Can we get Wag the Dog on there?

@AndrewHartman Added! I haven't seen this one. Seems pretty funny.

For a second, I got confused between this market and my Manifold's favorite movie market and bet YES on a bunch of options that definitely won't pay out here.

@JosephNoonan Ohh, that makes sense.

@cloudprism I was thinking, "How can there possibly be a 34% chance of 'Her' being the favorite movie when there are so many other options?"

@JosephNoonan That it's arguably the least dystopian of these options is a good sign.

I'd be interested in seeing debates between specific movie matchups. Not sure how to organize that.

Added Gattaca (unfortunately)

Hollywood, take note...

I mean, we're basically just 10 years away from Her right? pretty safe bet

@SemioticRivalry Yeah seems likely, if not guaranteed. The question then becomes if one of the other movies overtakes that in significance for those polled in 2049.

2001: A Space Odyssey

Will the poll be retrospective, asking poll respondents which movie was the full 25 years (2024 through 2049) most like? Or 25 years from now (in 2049) which movie does the world most strongly resemble?

@ShitakiIntaki It's true that the state of the world in 2049 might have a different answer than the full period of 25 years that led up to it. Might be worth making another question about that.

@ShitakiIntaki The most literal interpretation of the question is generally the least controversial. So yes, retrospectively. The poll will ask to the effect of "Which of the following movies did the past 25 years most resemble?"

If you pick Other, I'd be interested in hearing what movie you think it should be.

I'm just executing my "buy other" strategy based on the idea that most specific things are wrong.

@jskf I will note that Other categorically does not win until new movie options are specified, because the poll cannot include "Other".

@cloudprism The Lives of Others

Ever-increasing surveillance will be the theme of the coming decades

@lukres Thanks! I have not seen this one yet. Added

@cloudprism Whatever gets picked I think we can all agree that everyone will be wearing enormous boots all the time, as is usually shown in sci fi movies from the 60s through 90s

@cloudprism exactly

@jskf Looks like your strategy is paying off!

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