Even if you think LK-99 is a bust, you should be careful, since there are other candidates.

KH Chae discovered a violation of General Relativity at 10σ. Note that 1993 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded for confirmation of General Relativity by a binary pulsar. https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.04613

YW Lee discovered the universe is not accelerating. Note that 2011 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded for discovery of accelerating universe. https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.06288

@SanghyeonSeo Yeah, there's https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/will-any-of-the-seven-lk99-supercon that specifies the LK-99 authors only. It's a pretty short timeframe though, so I also made https://manifold.markets/jack/will-any-of-the-seven-lk99-supercon-c5cc6fca1ab8

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2026?

5% chance. Sukbae Lee, Ji-Hoon Kim, Young-Wan Kwon, Hyun-Tak Kim, Sungyeon Im, SooMin An, Keun Ho Auh Any of them win nobel prize before 2026 https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037