This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!

Arizona was a key battleground state that defined Biden's electoral victory over Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Winning by a margin of only over 10,000 votes, it was the second-closest race, the closest state being Georgia. Arizona was also the highlight of Biden's larger Sunbelt strategy, trying to court voters from the Southern USA as part of a larger coalition traditionally made up of areas in New England and the West Coast.

2004: Bush (10.5)
2008: McCain (8.5)

2012: Romney (9.1)

2016: Trump (3.5)

2020: Biden (0.3)

If Biden manages to make a repeat victory, market will resolve as YES, if the state flips backs to red, market will resolve as NO.