2024-2025 NBA Playoffs First round prop bets
27
2.2kαΉ€12k
May 31
93%
Scoring leader has 31.5PPG or more
72%
A top 2 seed is upset
69%
Total point differential in any series is <10
67%
Lakers lose
61%
Lebron or Luka miss >20% of Laker's first round minutes
60%
Nuggets lose
50%
SGA *or* Giannis lead in PPG
48%
Celtics have the best or second best net rating
43%
Kawhi plays at least 80% of all first round minutes for the Clippers
41%
Bronny sighting (>10 minutes total played)
41%
Over 4.5 overtimes
38%
At least 3 upsets
36%
A team comes back from 2 games down to win the series
33%
A player scores at least 55 points
32%
Knicks-Pistons is decided in game 7
28%
Warriors lose
26%
Jokic leads in PPG+APG
16%
Bucks in 6
10%
Warriors lose in 6 games or less
Resolved
YES
Damian Lillard plays at least 60 minutes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_playoffs?useskin=vector#First_round

  • Update 2025-04-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

    • Time Requirement: The market will be resolved based on a total of more than 10 minutes played across the entire series.

  • Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Upsets Determination Update:

    • The count of upsets will be determined based on seeding, not on betting odds.

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sad!

@dlin007 is this based on seed or betting odds?

Warriors favored over Rockets and Clippers (barely) favored over Nuggets (not sure that counts cause Nuggets opened as the favorite then Clippers were like 52% favorites entering game 1)

@dlin007 i should clarify this means >10 mins across the entire series

My special contrarian prediction for the first round is Warriors are going to lose quite easily

bought αΉ€20 NO

@dlin007 wanna define some terms for β€œeasily”? Like, would you place odds on Warriors win 2 or fewer games? (Truly β€œeasily” might be 1 or fewer but it’s tough, some 4-2s are ez and some are hard fought)

(I am basically getting caught up on the season now so have no real insight but I believe yours is indeed the contrarian position so I’d blindly take the mainstream one)

@Ziddletwix "expert predictions"

warriors are also ~60% favorites on oddschecker

my prediction is they lose in 6 games or less, and that my subjective judgement is they lost easily. bunch of ways to quantify that e.g point differential, time spent leading, prediction market odds trends etc

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