Re-opened with a more reasonable closing time

I feel like a lot of this probability is based on Elon dying, since he's much older than Sam Altman.

https://manifold.markets/ShadowyZephyr/conditional-on-neither-dying-will-s

Conditional on neither dying, will Sam Altman’s net worth exceed that of Elon Musk before 2040?

50% chance. Resolves N/A if either Elon Musk or Sam Altman dies before 2040. I will get net worth numbers using whatever is considered credible at the time. (I wanted to use Forbes for now but they appear to be down right now). If there is significant disagreement about their net worth (some sites report Elon Musk as higher and others report Sam Altman as higher) resolves 50%.

I don’t understand the title. Exceed what or Elon Musk?

@JamesRomeril Do you know what net worth is?

You have a typo, it says "or" where it should say "of". You can edit the title with the little pencil icon.

Also, how does this resolve if Elon dies?

@Joshua Thanks!

@donaldboyd Sam wins

@donaldboyd Yes, I know what net worth is. The typo was confusing.

@JamesRomeril My error., pls excuse my curt response .

@donaldboyd Oh, Sam wins if Elon dies, that makes it a lot more likely

(Also I assume if Sam dies and it doesn't happen Elon wins)